Your predictions are reasonable and logical in most cases, which is part of why I am not sure they will happen. ;)
One thing, though--I thought TW was due to remain post-watershed, even with its move to BBC One? In 2010 DW will be back and can sit in its own teatime slot and TW doesn't have to fill that role at all.
Now, I will preface this with the acknowledgement that the actors can be big, fat liars, but...
1. JB was confident to the point of arrogance at the Hub that TW was not going to end after S3 and made it clear he was not considering going back to the West End because he was having such success in TV and he wants to keep doing that
2. GDL was more cautious, but said they were planning an S4 as long as S3 performed well enough
3. GDL in some of the "intimate encounters" at the Hub hypthoseized about the future based on what happens in S3 and got a bit nervous/shamefaced when someone pointed out that one might extrapoloate certain positive things from what he said. I take that to mean it was a geniune "oops" from GDL.
I think the odds are decent there will be an s4, but that will be the end of it. If it does go to S4, I expect Ianto to have a crappy ending to his story involving death, retcon, trapped in a parallel world with a clone Jack Harkness that is straight, or something similarly depressing. Like you, I don't think Jack will hang with Eleven ever. I'd go so far as to suggest they will retcon out the idea Jack is Face of Boe and make him mortal again so he can die.
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One thing, though--I thought TW was due to remain post-watershed, even with its move to BBC One? In 2010 DW will be back and can sit in its own teatime slot and TW doesn't have to fill that role at all.
Now, I will preface this with the acknowledgement that the actors can be big, fat liars, but...
1. JB was confident to the point of arrogance at the Hub that TW was not going to end after S3 and made it clear he was not considering going back to the West End because he was having such success in TV and he wants to keep doing that
2. GDL was more cautious, but said they were planning an S4 as long as S3 performed well enough
3. GDL in some of the "intimate encounters" at the Hub hypthoseized about the future based on what happens in S3 and got a bit nervous/shamefaced when someone pointed out that one might extrapoloate certain positive things from what he said. I take that to mean it was a geniune "oops" from GDL.
I think the odds are decent there will be an s4, but that will be the end of it. If it does go to S4, I expect Ianto to have a crappy ending to his story involving death, retcon, trapped in a parallel world with a clone Jack Harkness that is straight, or something similarly depressing. Like you, I don't think Jack will hang with Eleven ever. I'd go so far as to suggest they will retcon out the idea Jack is Face of Boe and make him mortal again so he can die.